Wave Goodbye to Quality Standards


Declining-chartRemember how in the beginning of the year, we got a cascade of breaking news about problems with Boeing 787 Dreamliners?  First there was a battery fire, then an oil leak, a fuel leak, engine cracks, a damaged cockpit window; then an emergency landing of an All Nippon Airways 787 followed by the airline's grounding of all 17 of the jets.  On the same day Japan Airlines announced that they will stop flying their 787s as well.  It must've made Qantas's execs feel real good about the cancellation of the 35-units order ($8.5 billion list price - nearly 10% of the projected annual revenue) back in August of 2012 due to endless quality-related delivery delays.

It was not the first time either that the largest aerospace company in the world gave up a painfully huge chunk of already budgeted revenue.  In 2008 Boeing lost its bid for a $40-billion U.S. Air Force (!) contract to build 179 refueling aircrafts.  Whose tankers won favors with the Pentagon? The French competitor's – Airbus (!).  I recall reading at the time that Boeing's executives were so sure that the US defense order was pretty much in their American pockets that the celebration gala was already booked and catered.  I also remember that many inside sources cited the higher quality and reliability of the European tankers.

There is a reason why I consider these Boeing's quality issues to be so distressing.  First, the United States lost significant portions of international market shares in steel, heavy machinery, tools, household appliances, electronics, and consumer goods.  The mere notion of an American TV set became a memory: I still remember how it made me feel reading in 1999 about the buyout of the last U.S. TV maker Zenith Electronics by South Korean LG.  

The decades-long American automotive dominance (at one point 75% of the global supply) was first overtaken in the 1980s by the Japanese manufacturers with far superior quality and lower prices.  Now, China became the world's leader in the production of motor vehicles (23% of the global market).  Only the tremendous support of the US government keeps our carmakers in second place with an 11.8% share.  Then again, the frequency of auto recalls are really getting out of control, so it's anybody's guess how long we will be able to keep this standing.

Even while all these repositionings were taking place, I kept saying that the national economy will not completely deteriorate as long as the US continues supplying the world with two types of products, which pretty much define our era – microprocessors (Intel still manufactures in Chandler, AZ and Hillsboro, OR) and airplanes (Boeing's facilities are 90% domestic).  But now, with Boeing's value in an apparent decline, our country really pushes itself into a danger zone.  I mean, a slice of the defense budget, funded by our own taxes, went, of all countries, to France!!!

How did it happen?  Who's fault was that?  It's everybody's fault (well, maybe it's the media's fault first and then everyone else's).  In this celebrity-obsessed culture, merit-based standards have disappeared.  No one wants to work and be rewarded according to their contributions into the final output, being it tangible products or services.  No one cares about the quality of their work.  And nobody looks into the future.  Everyone wants to be rich and famous with a minimal effort, RIGHT NOW.  US manufacturing is getting suffocated by bizarro day-trading patterns, market-driven executive bonuses, union bargaining, wide-spread ignorance, and laid-back work ethics.  What quality?  As a result, a few products and services still produced domestically have a very low value per dollar spent.  From airplanes to… pretty much everything.

Yes, it's not just the industrial sector.  Every step we take, we are confronted with bad attitude and terrible quality.   Commercial and residential construction is slow and unpredictable.  Most of NYC bridges are overdue for maintenance by decades.  The cranes are falling onto nearby buildings, because City inspectors take bribes.  It's common knowledge that there is no such a thing as a leveled house – they are all crooked, with slanted floors and uneven walls.  It's not enough just to hire expensive contractors – if clients want the renovations to go smoothly and with decent results, they must supervise people who are paid $100-$250 per hour.     

Most doctors don't want to think about the patients' specific symptoms - their primary concerns are billing the insurance and getting pharmaceutical "incentives."  And that's why the US is the most overtested and overmedicated country in the world.  Don't even get me started on the sales staff.  If your mechanic tells you that the car will be ready in 3 hours, you would be wise to multiply that by 2.  The food deliveries are always a hit-or-miss – every other order is messed up.  But everyone expects tips, even if your dishes arrive upside down.  The old doormen in my building used to not only know my name, but even recognize the frequent visitors.  The young replacements cannot even associate my face with my apartment number – it's too much to ask. 

My own receptionist, for God's sake, is too lazy to ask about the caller's business – she just gives me a name.  And even that she doesn't care to get right.  A 45 year-old man with a fairly deep voice called the other day.  "Ted Fisher," he replied to her sleepy "Who's calling?" question.  She patches herself through to my extension and says,"Patricia for you." 

MONEYNEWS: The Shit Will Hit the Fan Soon – Didn’t I Say So?


For a really long time now, I've been explaining (and so have other realists) that the overpricing of pretty pieces of paper (aka stocks, bonds, treasury bills, etc.) caused by the gambling games of cocaine-fueled, high-strung nitwits in high-rise brokerage offices and delusional day-traders glued to their hand-held devices has nothing to do with real production values, revenue growth, profit generation, and economy improvements.  

It's shocking to me that people seriously accept the stock market "rally" of the past few months as a sign of tangible fiscal gains. The same goes for the rise in housing prices resulted from the unprecedentedly low mortgage rates artificially kept down by the US Treasury.

Don't you people understand that, just like with a terminal patient, this is a temporary remission before the downfall?  You cannot take a candy wrapper that worth 1 cent and say that its price is $430 just because there is a schmuck who is willing to shell out that kind of money for it and hope that there is another idiot out there who will pay $450.  Any, more or less logical, person should understand that the real value behind the candy wrapper is still 1 cent, regardless of how much money you pay for it.  But apparently the general public is severely lacking common sense and logical aptitude.

You know what else they are lacking? The disposal income – the money to spend, the moolah to throw around, the dollars to buy the products of the very companies, whose stocks comprise these people's pension and college funds.  If the consumer market contracts, how can companies generate revenues?  How can a nation experience a recovery, when 99.9% of it is getting poorer and poorer by the minute?

This issue of the constant reduction of consumer spending is at the core of the economic disasters ahead of us.  And apparently the public-stock billionaires, whose wealth is so easily added up and compiled into lists in the Forbes's offices, have already caught up with the reality - they are in high-gear disposal mode.

Please-please read this MONEYNEWS' article about Billionaires Dumping Stocks.  In addition to listing the relevant verifiable facts, it also refers readers to the voice of reason – an economist with an impeccable prediction record who foresees a market adjustment as dramatic as 90%!!!  And if you want a really full picture read the other articles linked below as well.   

Related articles

'Aftershock' Author Robert Wiedemer to Moneynews: Investors Buy Into Fed's '100% Fake' Recovery
Billionaires dumping stocks like they're going out of style (including bank stocks).

Downton Abbey and Economics of Large Country Estates


Downton-abbey-period-films-15626885-1896-1090Not quite Doctor Who just yet (it's not easy to compete with one of the top five grossing broadcasts in BBC's history), Downton Abbey is, nevertheless, an undeniable international success.  NBC Universal estimates that in the past three years the show has been viewed by as many as 120 million people worldwide.  Despite being a somewhat traditional British period melodrama, the hit series became popular in Scandinavia, Russia, South Asia, and the Middle East.  Over 8.5 million American households tuned in to their local PBS stations to watch the Season Three finale.  In January, an article in the New York Times told the story of Jim Carter's cycling trip to Cambodia: while wandering among the temples of Angkor Wat, he was surrounded by a crowd of Asian tourists, excitedly calling to him, "Mr. Carson!  Mr. Carson!"  This is what I call making TV history!

Of course, the casting is superb.  But there is no denying that, first and foremost, the show owes its popularity to the excellent storytelling skills of Julian Fellowes.  The writer/creator made his characters alive with a realistic mix of "good and evil" traits in each and every one of them.  He also managed to construct a multifaceted entertainment device, which reveals different aspects of the tale, depending on a particular viewer's interests.  There is plenty of romance, nearly operatic dramatics, suspenseful intrigues, social tension, snappy one-liners reserved for Maggie Smith's deadpan delivery, and spellbinding details of the times when craftsmen still cared about beauty and quality, not just immediate functionality.  

There is also a fundamental atmosphere of dignity surrounding the leading characters, regardless of their social origin.  The audience is subconsciously attracted to the possibility of people treating each other with respect and making sacrifices.   It's an escape from the reality of contemporary human behavior: Individuals of power caring about their charges? It's something no employee experiences nowadays.  Servants not spitting into their patrons' dishes?  Well, let's not even go there…

So, the show provides viewers with a lot of engaging material. To the point that most people don't even realize that one of Downton Abbey's most remarkable aspects is that its stories are painted on a solid factual canvas of the early 20th century.  But, the geeks of  history and socio-economics, who also love the show, are very anxious about the future of the Crawleys and their glorious home.  They don't brush away the tidbits about possible sell-off, lost castles, shortage of funds, and estate management – they soak it all up.

Because, you see, these were not easy times for the British gentry and their large country estates.  No siree!  In fact, by the time we meet them in this BBC series, they've already suffered several serious economic blows.

The majority of families with hereditary titles were not industrialists, bankers, or international traders.  They were (and many still are) landowners: centuries ago their royal sovereigns granted them counties and shires to rule; the fancy names came with the properties.  For many generations, it wasn't befitting of any European aristocrat, not just a British one, to make income-earning efforts.  The only careers acceptable for men were political or military: some of them contrived imperial plans and the others led people to death trying to fulfill them.  (As you recall, Matthew Crawley's solicitor practice was considered problematic as recently as the dawn of the last century.)  Of course, the only acceptable activities for women were bringing in a rich dowry (like Lady Cora did), making "society" connections, bearing the offspring, playing a hostess, hunting, and gardening.

The only source of most squires' income was that rural land they owned.  Up until the last quarter of the 19th century, they played a significant part in the agricultural sector of the economy by letting out large parcels to farmers.  And this was enough to keep the estates and their upstairs and downstairs occupants in good shape.

Believe it or not, the first shift for the worse was caused by a stock market crash – the 1873 collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange (yeah, the "investors" could've learned their lessons back then, but they never do!).  This is not the right occasion for going into the genesis and the consequences of the Panic of 1873.  Let me just register my belief that this was the first link in the chain of economic events that led to revolutions, both World Wars, and the Great Depression.  Hell, our current reality may be affected by it!  However, the most relevant aftermath of the event, to this post's subject, was the Pan-European poverty which led to the contraction of market demand and agricultural depression.  Most of the British Country Estates experienced severe deterioration of their income.

Unfortunately the disappearance of revenues coincided with an escalation of standards (and costs) of comfortable living.  The Industrial Revolution offered possibilities for new luxiries to the estates' owners: innovative plumbing, electricity, central heating, phones, etc.  It would be silly for lords and ladies to stick to the retrogressive ways of existing, in an Amish sort of way, for the sake of frugality.  But can you imagine the capital investment required to outfit a stately home such as Downton Abbey with all the modern amenities?  And how about those utility bills covering 100+ rooms?

As it always happens, when the national economy goes sour, the governments use taxation instruments to cover their own holes.  While the Death Duty was first introduced in Great Britain in 1796, through the multitudes of loopholes, it remained a nuisance until the late 19th century.  But starting with the 1890's all bequeathed property became subject to the "probate duty" with the persistently increasing taxation rates (they peaked to 65% in 1940, becoming one of the major sources of funding the UK's World War II efforts).  Truth be told, economically speaking, the best thing that could happen to the Downton's inhabitants is for Lord Grantham t0 stay alive all the way to the end of the show – this will spare the audience from witnessing not just the loss of the character, but also the most significant financial blow.

Further tightening of the taxation screws came on the wings of social justice as it was interpreted by the 1909 People's Budget, conceived by two future Prime Ministers: David Lloyd George, then a Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Winston Churchill, then President of the Board of Trade.  This fiscal Act was essentially a first attempt in British history to redistribute wealth.  It resulted in the increase of income taxes and a mandatory revaluation of land every time it changed hands with 20% taxes imposed on the value increase.  The likes of the Crawleys nicknamed the political duo behind it the "Terrible Twins."

Of course, World War I dealt a terrible blow to all Europeans, including the British landed gentry.  Always a great source of life-changing drama, the war becomes the predominant backdrop of Downton's second season.  In a very tactful way, while focusing on the inhuman horrors of combat with numerous lives lost and deformed, the show still managed to pinpoint the specific effect this terrible turmoil had on the economy as a whole and the estate itself.  The withdrawal of working-age men from civilian life devastated both the remaining income-generating opportunities and the property's service.             

So far, the series creators have been kind to the viewers who became emotionally attached to the beautiful property: they only mention a possibility of a sale.  But the sad truth is that, by that time, there were only a handful of people who could buy these grand houses. 

Some of them became regional museums, schools, prisons, etc.  A few others opened large portions of the living quarters for public viewing.  Most of the art displayed to the paying visitors in these mansions and castles doesn't belong to the titled heirs anymore.  One part of the People's Budget was a provision for Acceptance in Lieu, which allowed for inheritance tax debts to be written off in exchange for donation of national treasures.  While the legal ownership got transferred to such esteemed institutions as the Victoria & Albert Museum or the National Gallery, the art objects are allowed to retain their familiar positions as long as they can be viewed by the public for at least 100 days a year.  

However, the rest of Great Britain's large country estates were simply demolished.  Since 1900, over 1,600 important houses had been destroyed in England, Scotland, and Ireland; many of them architectural gems and the seats of historical figures.  Some of the demolition spoils – fireplaces, library panelings, balustrades were sold for next to nothing; many ended up in America.  

From the point of view of economic history, Julian Fellowes already wrote a sequel to Downton Abbey in his screenplay for Gosford Park (2001), based on an idea by Robert Altman, who also directed.  The movie takes place in 1932 and Sir William McCordle (played by pre-Dumbledore Michael Gambon) resides comfortably in his Victorian estate, because he had cast aside gentlemanly ideals a long time ago.   He is a World War I profiteer, a ruthless manufacturer exploiting the labour of women and children in his factories.

By the end of Downton's third season, the key decision-makers seem to be in agreement that Matthew's insistence on turning the estates into a big-scale industrialized agricultural enterprise is the only way to keep the place attached to the name.  It remains to be seen how far Julian Fellowes will push the historical realism into the melodramatic mosaic of the show, while preserving its high ratings.

Video Quote of the Week: A Key to Economic and Social Survival Courtesy of the Gates Foundation


I could’ve written thousands  upon thousands words on the subject, but the creative studio Gentleman Scholar commissioned by the Gates Foundation managed to compact the organization’s message on family planning as a crucial necessity for the world’s well-being into a 1 minute and 44 second gem with a self-spoken title Where’s the Controversy in Saving Lives? 

Thank you, Bill and Melinda Gates!

Click the video’s title above to watch it on YouTube.