Category: Economics

US Perilous Ally Threatens the White House


There is definitely something terribly fragile about the state of our foreign affairs if I need to discuss our phony "allies" in two posts back-to-back.  This time, it's not some unnamed "friend" - it's Saudi Arabia or, as many journalists call it, one of the "most awkward" of US allies.  The reason I feel the need to talk about it is that the present tension between us and Saudi Arabia is a stark exhibit of how monetary stimuli affect the White House politics.  

140226_awkwardallies_saudiarabiaBut before I can address the current events, some cursory background is mandatory.  At the very least it is important to understand why we are allies with Saudis in the first place and what's so awkward about this relationship.

Ever since FDR (that Grand Master of uber-strenuous alliances) struck some sort of a secret deal with the Saudi ruler of the time King Abdulaziz in 1945, the resulting relationship has been teetering on three main financial whales:

  1.  Saudi Arabia is the largest customer of the US weapon trade; no other nation buys as much military equipment and armament made in the US than that tiny country with population of 31 million.
  2. 11% of American oil imports come from Saudi Arabia, with over 1 million barrels pumping in every day – second only to Canada and ahead of our next-door neighbors Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia.
  3. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one of the largest foreign investors into US market-trading assets, specifically government bonds and corporate stocks (more related numbers below).

As in many money-driven relationships, the partners in this one don't really see eye to eye when it comes to non-monetary issues, especially with respect to social and political values.  Hence, the awkwardness.  Our President can laugh all he wants, but for those who care it's painful to know that the White House calls the country famous for its obscurantist interpretation of Islam, medieval punishments, and the harshest treatment of women "our ally." On the other hand, Saudis are not happy with US Middle-Eastern policies, especially in Syria, Iran, and Israel.  In fact, the Saudi foreign minister has been quoted as saying, "It's a Muslim marriage, not a Catholic marriage."

That's actually remarkably aphoristic:  Catholic marriage is for life.  No divorces are permitted, so the union is truly "till death do us part."  On the other hand, according to Sharia (Islamic law), Muslim divorce process is reduced to a single announcement of a husband to his wife, "I divorce you" (the phrase and the short ritual are both called talaq).  That's it – he says it and she is out on the street; no legal or even religious authorities need to be involved.  Apparently Saudi Arabia feels that the United States of America is its Muslim wife.  As I said, clearly the relationship is precarious at best.  

Into this volatile drama enters the bipartisan bill that, if passed by the Congress, may allow victims of 09/11 to sue foreign governments, including Saudi Arabia.  When was the last time you've heard of a yet-unapproved legislation proposal becoming a big international news item?  Well this one did, as soon as it hit the congressional floor.  How important is this bill to the White House?  It is so important that, according to the New York Times (our last frontier of journalism with original sources), the Obama Administration has been lobbying against it for quite some time, trying to squash it before it even got to the approval stage.   Unable to stop the bill so far, Obama went this week to Saudi Arabia to talk it over with the King.  

The administration's cover story for the bill-bashing activities, formulated on the record by the President, is the concern that this will give other nations a reason to put in place similar regulations against the United States. Well, even though we don't create disasters like 09/11, we do meddle in other nations' existence from time to time.   So, it's a plausible worry.  Only I don't buy it.  Why is he not going to any other countries that may be impacted by the bill, just to Saudi Arabia?  Why the President himself and not the Secretary of State, for example? You know why -  C.R.E.A.M.!!!    

The very same New York Times has also reported that our "ally" has already announced to the White House their retaliation strategy.  Does it have anything to do with "we-shall-sue-you-back" laws?  Nah, not surprisingly it's economic: they threaten to sell off $750 billion of American assets.  Now, that's what I'm talking about!  Money!  It talks and makes US Presidents bounce this way and that way on their strings.

I find it absolutely preposterous that some "commentators" immediately started calming themselves down and speculating that Saudis don't even have that much of US bonds and stocks; or that they wouldn't extinguish a huge cache of investments just like that, because they would lose money, etc., etc.  They sound to me like a bunch of ignorant optimists who either don't understand the extent of Saudi wealth, or are hiding their heads in the sand out of fear, or both.  But I am not like that.  I'd rather look into the face of the most damning scenario.  I think that Saudis wouldn't hesitate to act on their threat.  I also think that they are probably as conservative as I am and value their investments at the lower of cost or market.  Therefore, this specific amount, $750 billion, is exactly what they can do without any problem; moreover, with gains.   

Now, let's see what this amount means to the United States.  First, there is the most obvious implication of the threat – the one that's on everyone's mind.  $750 billion is about 1.7% of the total value (as of 12/31/2015) of American publicly-traded stocks and treasury bonds combined.  That's a pretty significant share.  (Just to give you an idea of the number's magnitude: the market capitalization, i.e. the total value of all outstanding shares, of Apple, Inc. [#1 ranked American stock] is $600 billion.)  Dumping huge buckets of equity shares and bonds into the market will start an obvious chain reaction: The stock prices will start violently dropping and bonds' discounts (percentages below par) increasing.  This will push other investors, especially day traders, into a panic and they will join the sell-off in attempt to recover at least some of their money, intensifying the effect and driving the prices further and further down.  As the result, (a) the stock market will experience a deep adjustment and (b) the US Dollar will be seriously devalued.  This, in turn, will affect the global markets, the international trade, the costs of raw materials, the deficit, etc., etc.             

And assets divesture could be just a first step.  It may be followed by another economic blow – the cancellations of arms deals.  There are always Russians, you know, with their outdated garbage, but it looks pretty sinister.  If weapons sales seize abruptly, first the military sector will need a bailout and then we shall see a contraction of the entire industrial sector.  Therefore, it is not surprising that the White House is concerned – there is a definite possibility of talaq (see above) here.  I'm sure Obama went to Saudi Arabia to promise them that he would veto whatever rightful laws the Congress might pass.

There is another significance to this number, though.  It can give you an idea of who owns the US marketable securities (and keeps their values high).  As of 10/01/2015, $12.2 trillion of those assets belonged to foreign investors.  This breaks down into 43% (!) of total outstanding US government bonds ($6.2 trillion), and 20% of all outstanding equity shares ($6 billion).  Now, as I said, not only that I think Saudis own $750 billion of American assets, I am sure that this is just a portion of what they have.  It's just hard for me to believe that they would divest of the entire lot, no matter how angry they are.   For argument's sake let's say it's 50% of what they actually have.  That would mean that the kingdom holds 12% of the total foreign investments into the US markets.  Remarkable!  

Of course, all this politico-economic rat-scuffling is very fascinating, but so is the human paradox.  Just think about it.  There always have been plenty of speculations about Saudis complicity in 09/11 attacks, but nobody ever came out with solid proofs.  If they exist, they are buried well.  And honestly, considering how fickle everyone's attention is nowadays, nobody would dwell on their suspicions too long; if only Saudis kept their guilty asses in low profile, pretending that they have nothing to hide.  But no!  They had to go to the Bush administration with, "Please, please, get us out of here ASAP," resulting in all those sweeping-away-in-helicopters shenanigans.  Nobody will ever forget that!  And now, this scandalous reaction to the bill!  Doesn't it sound like an admission of guilt? Wouldn't it be cleverer to stick to the not-guilty plea?  I mean, even if there are law suits, a country like Saudi Arabia can buy the best legal defense in the world.  On the other hand, it could be a matter of arrogance.  They must feel incredibly secure not to worry about appearances.     

Donald Trump v. Hillary Clinton’s Foreign Supporters


I am not an ophthalmologist.  So, I cannot explain why people can't see for themselves.  Nor am I interested enough in so-called human factors to start analyzing what makes people so confused.  But I am a career financial executive with multiple academic degrees and 30 years experience in international business relations.  As such, I can shine some light onto the monetary lining of certain political matters.  (And yes, it's always about money!)    

Trump vs. ClintonWe are several months away from 2016 presidential face-off and the outcome of the Republican primary is still uncertain, but Hillary has already started her anti-Trump balls rolling.  In March, she and another former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright (he-Clinton's appointee), declared that U.S. allies abroad are "definitely worried" about the idea of Trump's potential presidency.

Here I feel obligated to remind the readers that Madeleine Albright keeps repeating on record that “there’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other,” thus forcing upon you the idea of vagina sisterhood as the highest priority for women – more important than our survival, well-being, principles, and ideals.  This is just to underscore the speakers' vantage point.  But you've got to love the ambiguity of their statement worthy of true foreign-affairs foxes: Which allies are they talking about?  All of them or just a few?  A couple, or twenty, or none?  

In the absence of clarity, we can only speculate, but I sure hope they are all worried.  Because, unlike all those professional politicians in the running,  Donald J. Trump is not going to play nice and be concerned about our allies' opinions of him personally or of America's policies.  For Donald J. Trump, American interests come first.  And it's about time for someone to care more about us than about all the beneficiaries of IMF, the World Bank, WHO, UN (with all its agencies, funds, and sub-funds), NATO, and any other foreign support system that gets most of its financing from our personal pockets via career global manipulators in Washington, D.C.       

And let me tell you something about those possibly "worried" nations: Their governments may officially declare themselves US allies and they may act as friends of Hillary's, but people there hate Americans.  Let me repeat that: they hate us with passion.  Many writers, journalists, filmmakers, historians, social and political analysts, here and overseas, have touched on the issue of global anti-Americanism.  Most of them, including our own liberals, explain and justify even the most unfair hostility towards us by entire nations and groups.  A logical person should not even bother with all that emotional theoreticism.  All you need is to cross the border.  

Anyone who traveled abroad (even as close as Canada, let alone Europe and further) and actually interacted with random people – not polite business partners in their office environments or paid service providers on the beaten paths, but with people on the streets, in cafes, in bars – can tell you about their personal interface with unabashed anti-Americanism: the way people look at you, the things people mutter under their breath, small bits that slip out in conversations, and even open hostility.  Let alone the burning of an American flag I've witnessed on Trafalgar Square the last time I was going to the National Gallery in London.  The truth is, you don't even have to go outside of NYC: half of the taxi drivers here have BBC UK stations on.  Oh my God!  The shit that pours out of those radios!   

Why do they hate us, though?  A lot of official data sources (BBC LOVES those Americanophobia polls) concentrate on "US cultural influence," such as it is.  However, that would be the easiest thing to resolve, actually:  if you don't like American stuff, stop going to McDonald's and your movie theaters – if there is no demand, there will be no supply and no "influence".  But no, the fucking Russia with their 81% of anti-American sentiment (second largest in the world after Jordan) leaves and breathes American cinema and TV.  And China (71%), being the largest movie market in the world, is singlehandedly responsible for all the bombastic crap that comes out of Hollywood nowadays.  So, obviously, the supposed "influence" is not the reason for hatred.

What is, then?  Well, let's sing it together:  It's all about money!  The jealousy!  The primal coveting that the Judeo-Christian canons have been trying so hard to eradicate!  American wealth has always been a sore spot for our "friends" and enemies alike.  And I am not talking about super-rich either.  It's the small things: the fact that so many of us can afford more than our peers overseas; that at each level of income we have bigger houses, more technology, and more food; that many of us can travel to their countries, but they cannot afford to come here; that our gas and coffee is still cheaper; that our cereal boxes and cat-food cans are bigger; that we have dozens of ketchups and mustards in an average supermarket, etc., etc.  It's really primitive: "They've got more and we hate it!"        

Except that the reality is not some two-dimensional surface.  It is constructed on the principle of cause and effect.  There are fundamental reasons why we've got what we've got and they haven't.   And if I had to narrow it down to the most defining one, I'd say that it's all about the interpretation of Equality.  

In many countries our politicians call allies (and some even adore, e.g. Senator Sanders), Equality is misinterpreted as a socialistic notion of public uniformity, with everyone in the same lower middle-range of bare necessities, regardless of their personal merits – gifts, entrepreneurship, ambition, drive.  Whether you are a lousy or an extraordinary worker, your opportunities are "EQUAL," because you granted your government the responsibility for redistribution of wealth.  On the other hand, our Constitution treats Equality in terms of fairness.  It is defined as an opportunity to try your hardest and make the most of your own abilities.  And this difference makes their hatred of us unjustifiable.    

Yes, we keep losing a grip and sliding off our own foundation due to the government's meddling, overpopulation, pervasive nepotism, illegal immigration, useless liberal education, etc.  But the bedrock is there; the shreds of meritocracy can still be detected; and we can still do better than any of our foreign allies.  So, why would we care about them?  

Trump obviously doesn't, but Hillary, on the other hand, must care!  Why?  Yet again, money.  She needs them and she works hard to get them wherever she can.  Just in the past few months Clinton has held 13 foreign fundraisers, including in London, Durban (South Africa), Munich, and Mexico City.  Yes, the capital of Mexico, which illegally exports their devastated citizens through the US border.  Apparently, it is much cheaper for Mexico to pay off Democratic presidential candidates than to create jobs.  Hmm, that's a thought!  I wonder who we can bribe to get rid of hipsters?

But seriously, who do I trust more?  Someone who is 100% financially and ideologically independent and is hell-bent on making our country prosperous again?  Or someone on the take from pretty much everyone and with the greatest concern for her own political status?  For me the answer is obvious.  But then again, unlike most of Hillary's supporters, I'm not the kind of person who would base her political allegiance purely on gender either.  Yes, I'm all about "girl power," but I am not biased in any way!  It appears that Ms. Clinton and I have the same physical attributes in the same places.  But so what?  The body parts is not how I evaluate humans.  What's in her mind, in her heart, and in her soul is far more important to me, and it doesn't seem that we have too much in common in those departments.

Well, as long as we are on the topic of feminism, let me share the information that really rubs me the wrong way:  It is a matter of public record that Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation has accepted money from King of Saudi Arabia (at least $10 million); King of Morocco ($1 million), and King of Oman ($1 million).  How about these feminist countries where, at the very least, women must hide their hair under a scarf?  Do I need to remind my readers that it is illegal for women to drive in Saudi Arabia?  Are all those vagina sisters of Hillary okay with this?

Coincidentally, the other day one of my attorneys was trying to convince me that you cannot blame fundraisers for unscrupulously raising funds wherever they can.  Just because Hillary takes money from whoever, he said, it doesn't mean that she will reciprocate with any favors.  This lawyer, being a Philadelphia man himself, was using Bill Cosby's example to illustrate his argument.  Why should Temple University, for example, even consider returning the money donated to them by the legally entangled comedian?  The money was given in good faith and there are no strings attached, he asserted.

Except, there are strings.  Strings are always attached to money.  Obviously, my attorney friend is being very naive.  Let's follow his example.  If such situation arose, do you think for a second that Temple University would refuse to accept one of Cosby's kids or grandkids as their student, regardless of their GPA's and SAT scores? It is a well-known fact that parents' donations ($200,000 – $5,000,000) buy kids' ways into exclusive prep schools and Ivy League universities.  And if you think that a valuable donor cannot suggest a grant candidate to the Research Allocation Committee, you don't know how this world works.      

And that's educational institutions – that's all they can give in return for the money.  Imagine what can be requested from the President of the United States! And don't doubt it for a second: when the donors come knocking on the door, Hillary will have no choice but to open it.  Because if you refuse, there will be no more fundraising in the future – not for her, nor for anybody else.  These are not alms, these are advances on political favors with global impact.  That's how the system works.  And she is no Trump.  She is a part of the machine and she will not rise against it.  

But forget all that political bullshit!  This whole issue of Trump-worried allies is far more personal than Hillary's donations.  Let's look inside our wallets, at our bank accounts, retirement funds, our very own economic well being; and with that in mind, ask yourself, America, do you want to be on good terms with some broke-ass foreigners, or do you want to rattle everyone's cage by having once again more personal wealth than your counterparts anywhere in the world?           

Photo Quote of the Week: The Millennial Conundrum


© 2016 Original by YAC. All rights reserved.

A Few Quintessential Problems with Rabble-Rousers Like Bernie Sanders


Well, I stayed out of it for a long time.  I snapped at the phony feminist sisterhood only 2 or 3 times and tried to ignore the offensive, nonsensical, anti-American garbage pouring out of the Jacobin of Vermont.  But he did not go away, and considering the mental state of the Union, I shouldn’t have hoped for that.  Now we are definitely on dangerous ground.  At this point, no one who understands the historical, economic, and social impact of Mr. Sanders’s candidacy should remain silent, no matter how small their voice.  

Here is what History taught me about the seemingly far-out rabble-rousers like Bernie Sanders:

1.   They are fanatics in the most literal definition of the word, i.e. they are possessed by overwhelming and unwavering zeal for their extreme causes, whatever they may be: class equality, ethnic or religious purity, condemnation of cultural traditions, intellectual ostracism, or expropriation of private wealth into the government’s treasury.  As fanatics they are dangerously immune to logic, critical reasoning, and morality.  They are absolutely intolerant to the opinions and ideas of others, and will treat their opponents as mortal enemies – Qui non nobiscum, adversus nos est (Those who are not with us are against us).

2.  Contrary to popular belief, they are not actually rebels with breakthrough ideas; they are nothing more than followers.  They are not capable of independent thinking and invariably get fixated on the ideas of others, frequently misunderstanding, misinterpreting, and misappropriating the original thesis.  Older siblings are often responsible for shaping their overly impressionable minds.  They are prone to idolization of certain historical figures.  And every one of them uses some preexisting model as a framework for their own system of beliefs: Roman Imperialism, the Reign of Terror, the Communist Manifesto, or “Danish Socialism,” to name a few.         

3.  They usually have no regard for fundamental principles and cornerstone concepts.   Private property and the creation of profit are the carrying pillars of the United States of America, as it was conceived by our founding fathers.  Anyone who wants to topple them down is nothing if not anti-American. But the delusional rabble-rousers always believe that a structure can remain sound and functional even if its backbone is completely removed.  Time and again throughout history they have found themselves on a pile of rubble, trying to put together a “brave new” world out of broken pieces.  They are oblivious to the undeniable truth that it’s easier to destroy than to create.

4.  Of course, it is quite possible that they don’t know and/or understand what these fundamental principles are.  The truth is that most rabble-rousers don’t know much about anything except the rabble-rousing itself.  Many political figures start their agitating undertakings early on in their lives and simply don’t have time for in-depth studies or any sort of self-growth.  An overwhelming number of the most dangerous historical figures were expelled from schools and universities, (Note!  This is very different from dropping out on your own volition, especially in pursuit of more adequate education. A student activist wants to stay a student activist as long as he can, and that has nothing to do with education), couldn’t hold a job, or achieve any success in their desired calling.  

The undergrad student Bernard Sanders, for example, was an avid member of several political organizations, including the Young People’s Socialist League.  There was no time to dig into books.   A few odd jobs here and there, and by 27 he had snugly settled into the life of a political campaign operator in Vermont.  Sadly, monetary matters, political economics, commercial entrepreneurship, medical and all other sciences, and especially historical analysis are the notorious blind spots of all politicians, but especially so of narrow-focused zealots.    

5.  Yet, a rabble-rousers’ occupation, by definition, mandates not just simple talking, but actual orating and expressing opinions on some lofty and important subjects.  And address big issues they do, but in absence of a solid theoretical foundation, they become surface-gliding fantasists.  They spent most of their time in meetings, travels, conversations, briefings on various issues, etc.  While doing that, they pick bits and pieces of information here and there, selectively squirreling those that fit their agenda.  Oh, you have free health care?!  That’s neat!  The government here pays for your education?  Awesome, dude!  All that childish excitement is based on quick glances at glossy surfaces.  Of course, they fervently believe that they can simply will or force their dreams to come true. The unfortunate truth is that most of the time they don’t even see the reality – they see what they want to see.  

In September 2015 Bernard Sanders declared that he liked “Danish Socialism” because “he talked to a guy from Denmark” who told him that in Denmark “it is very hard to become very, very rich, but it’s pretty hard to be very, very poor.”  This created quite an uproar in Denmark – the Prime-Minister had to go on record and explain that they are not a socialist country, but a hybrid of a market economy and a welfare state, which proved to be successful in Nordic (SPECIFICALLY!) countries.  (Well, I personally find the Nordic governments’ interference with private and personal property as well as citizens’ individual rights nothing short of barbaric, but that’s not the subject of this discussion).

6.  What they lack in quality erudition and critical thinking, rabble-rousers make up for in tautology, sophism, and all other skills of demagoguery.  As I said, they talk!  Some of them even end up being listed as the greatest orators of all times, evil-doing notwithstanding.  And with what fervor!  I watch him and I am, like, he is a raven lunatic, like the others!  And they twist every fact, every notion, and every quote to serve their cause!  They will repeat the same gibberish this way and that way over and over again, claiming that their ideas and conclusions are irrefutably true and their schemes are solidly plausible without supplying A SINGLE SHRED of evidence or valid reasoning to support their bullshit.  Everything they say is served up as “absolute truth;” no proof is required: like a politician from a state, where white folks compose 95% of the population, claims on record that race relations will “absolutely” be better if he is in the White House; not that he will try to do his best or that he has definite steps in mind, but just “absolutely better!”    

They talk this way about their ideological platforms and economic proposals; they throw brazen accusations at their opponents (“reactionary,” “not progressive,” “funded by Wall Street”); and they do it with such conviction that they are the first to believe it.  If you challenge them, they will equal themselves with true innovators and brilliant visionaries of the past – those who worked hard and actually knew what they were doing.  They will tell you that revolutionary ideas, such as theirs, have always been dismissed.  They will try to shame you as a retrograde equal to Giordano Bruno’s executioners!

7.  Because their fantasies are so deliberately populist and because their agitating rhetoric is so stupefying, the likes of Bernie Sanders invariably attract a hysterical following of ignorant crowds.  Rabble-rousers worth nothing in the absence of their rabid supporters.  Together, though, they constitute the symbiosis of encyclopedic proportions – more profound than clownfish and sea anemones.  This is where the power, and the evil of the provocateur lies.  As history shows; because the majority of humans are more responsive to simplistic slogans than to complicated logic, and cannot see the truth behind the stage decorations, the inflammatory bugs coughed up by agitators usually spread over rather large portions of the population.         

8.   All rabble-rousers are faithful students of Machiavelli when it comes to his maxim that the end justifies the means.  They are always very eager to argue that their actions can only be considered morally right or wrong by virtue of the morality of the outcome.  This is why human rights are sooner or later violated by pretty much every rabble-rouser throughout history.  This is why individual well-being becomes unimportant to these people, as they are in the pursuit of a “better future” for some abstract society as a whole.  They will stubbornly sacrifice everything and everyone for their “ideals,” including the lives of hundreds of American veterans, if you put them in charge of the Veterans’ Affairs. (As a side note: Who the fuck decided to put this career anti-war protester in charge of the veterans’ benefits?)  And of course, if you don’t believe that their ultimate purpose is moral, you become the “people’s” enemy (see item 1).  

9.  This believe that they must do whatever it takes to see their ideas realized is precisely why the rabble-rousers will accept “help” from anybody who offers it, especially if it comes from people and entities with a lot of means and real power.  Yet, they always fail to realize that they end up being puppets in the much bigger scheme of their benefactors.  The entire bolshevik revolution was financed by the Germans, desperate to weaken Russia on the Eastern Front of World War I.  In the spring of 1917, they had stuffed an ironclad railcar with money, Lenin, and 31 of his comrades and transported them from their comfortable exile in Switzerland to Russia, assuring the success of the October Revolution.  In return, the new Russian government signed a peace treaty with the Germans only one month after usurping the power.  At the end that wasn’t enough to counteract the joint efforts of the British and French troops, but it definitely cost the allies a lot of extra blood.

And so, I keep wondering, how is it that, after 23 years of political failures and then (finally!) 16 years of a lackluster career in the House of Representatives, 65-year-old Bernard Sanders was all of a sudden elected to be one of the 100 people that constitute the upper echelon of our national Congress?  And now he is in the presidential race?  Doesn’t it sound like someone’s (not Bernie’s) long con?  I have 10 different endgame scenarios fully fledged in my head, but all of them are too “controversial” to discuss even in this tiny blog.

10.  Oh, how I wish for Bernie’s supporters to sober up (or smart up – same difference!) and see that at their very core all rabble-rousers are liars.  They know that mass appeal is mandatory for their survival, and so they come at you with all sorts of impossible promises, false guarantees, and seemingly genuine care for the “real people.”  They say exactly what masses want to hear. “Free” is their favorite chant – land to peasants, factories to laborers; entire foreign countries with serving nations at citizens’ disposal; free healthcare, free education!  They are veritable Robin Hoods: expropriate and redistribute!  And “real people” are just eating it all up!  But it’s all a lie, of course.  The only thing that a fanatic cares about is the ideological victory.  They have no regard for consequences, actual realization of pledges, the morality of the methods that will be employed in the name of their ideas, or how perverted the results will be.  Open your history books, people, it’s all there already!       

11.  Here is one of the most important lessons of History:  It is a grave mistake to dismiss these rabble-rousers as a joke.  Time and time again people have made this mistake in the past and paid with their lives for it.  Right before someone, who in retrospect we define as a scary dictator, came to power, reasonable and intellectual people refused to take him seriously.  Invariably the line of reasoning went something like this: “There is no way anyone with a bit of brain will buy into this cockamamie bullshit!”  But the reality is, that precisely for the reasons listed above – their mass appeal, amoral flexibility, fanaticism, and willingness to sacrifice everything for the sake of their idee fixe, these clowns can be propelled by the forces behind them to positions with the powers to do the utmost damage.

Resist!  Resist!  Resist!                  

The Frustrated CFO’s Take on the Impending Market Crash


By the end of last Friday, the Dow Industrial dropped 400 points and the market is now down cumulative 8% in 15 days of the new year!  Oil teeters at $28 and it looks to me that  it is inclined to slide down, not climb up.  Just as expected by some, and say it with me, please, "It's only going to get worth!"

The-coming-2013-stock-market-correctionBut people (again) are like, "Oh, my God! My Apple stock!  I should've sold at $139!" (FYI, it's  at $97 as of Friday).  And the media is all like, "Market crash robs $2.3 trillion from investors!"   

Seriously?  It's the market's fault???  Hello, people, can't you read?!  They state it plain and simple on every trading site and in every market investment document:  "May lose principal value."  It's in smallish, but not invisible, print – if you care to see it, you will.  How can anybody possibly blame the stock market for being what it's meant to be: the gambling boiler fueled by unsubstantiated rumors, false promises, illogical hopes of overnight wealth, and herd mentality?  The chances of losing all your money there are pretty much the same as those in pressing the slot machine's button for days and days in a row.  

In fact, casinos are far more honest about it – when you walk in, you know that the odds of setting yourself for life by winning there are very low.  And nobody blames the casino.  You blame the Fortune.  The reality is that the stock market is not much different.  

The only people who manage to generate gains there are the most shrewd, the most intuitive, the luckiest, and, most importantly, active traders; those who understand the slightest nuances of the market's moves; who sit in front of their computers for 8 hours a day and follow their gut feelings when they personally manage their portfolios.  But those are one in a million.  The rest of the "investors" – from an average Joe to large pension funds are bound to lose.  Remember all those brokers and fund managers who handed over their investors' money to Bernie Madoff?  You don't expect them to start actively trading for you, do you?

And let's not forget the simple arithmetic fact that it is the mass public participation in the security exchange that drives the market value up and down in the first place.  We've already discussed the supply and demand laws on multiple occasions.  The more people buy the stocks, the higher their prices are.  And it's the mass panic that results in selloffs and crashes.  

Even if you don't understand the detailed dynamics of what happened on Friday, you can grasp the essence of the participation impact in the perfect example of Apple shares:  There were tons of companies that lost far more than Apple's 2.4% of their stock prices (Disney, for example, lost 5.3%), yet it was Apple that led the list of "wealth destroyers" (as some media geniuses labeled them) with a loss of $218 billion (26%) of their market value.  The reason for that is the astounding number the company's outstanding shares.  Everyone and their mother chooses Apple as their favorite high-tech investment.       

So, it's not an abstract "market's" fault; it's the investors' own undoing.  Nobody forced them to trust their pension and college funds to a gambling outfit.  And now, between the mass hysteria of people in fear of losing their last dime and the financial strains caused by the economic downturn, the selloff will accelerate.   400 points is nothing – there is a real crash ahead.