Federal Reserve, Economists, and The Wall Street Journal Blame Frigid Weather for Nonexistent Recovery


ColdcatYesterday was the deadline for reporting first quarter fiscal results: I filed financial statements and supplements with lenders and such; various US government agencies released their data to the public.  Everyone was on time.  The difference is that I take my job seriously and can substantiate every single digit I report, while the national economists have nothing better to do than look at the numbers in front of them in total bewilderment and spit out funny bullshit.

The Wall Street Journal's online edition titled its summary of quarterly results U.S. Economy Starts Year With a Whimper - a great title for a parody sketch, but no, it's a "serious" article with a grave first sentence:

"U.S. growth nearly stalled in the first three months of the year, fresh evidence that the economic expansion that began almost five years ago remains the weakest in modern history."

 I don't read WSJ anymore but the article was forwarded to me, and it makes me wonder whether the person who sent it did so specifically to elicit my indignant bitterness!  Well, she failed: I cannot get angry about this fucking shit anymore.  I react with questions: What growth?!  What expansion?!! Started when?!!!

I've said it before and I will probably need to say it many times again:  THERE IS NO RECOVERY!!!  This weak whatever we are witnessing is THE NEW REALITY!!!  How I wish for these people to wake up and throw their outdated economic concepts, models, and notions out of their high-floor windows!  And, to tell you the truth, I don't really trust the numbers anymore either.  My naked eye tells me they are falsified: They say GDP (I CANNOT BELIEVE THEY ARE STILL USING THAT METRIC!) grew 0.1% in the first quarter?  I say it probably contracted by 5% or more.

But that's not the funniest part.  According to economists quoted in the article, "harsh weather likely slowed first-quarter business investment."  Really?  Not the lack of the world-wide market demand for US products, but the weather?  Let me tell you, the coldest city in the world is Yakutsk, Russia.  Only Antarctica registers colder temperatures.  You know what it's famous for? Diamond mining – it's responsible for  1/5 of the world's production, freezing weather or not. 

Furthermore, cold weather "could have even blocked exports—which notched their sharpest decline since the recovery began—from reaching ports." Hmm, let me see.  First-hand info: My import/export client had  62 shipments coming to and going from US ports (Bayonne, Savannah, Houston) in the first quarter.  None (!) of them experienced any delays.  

And are you confused?  By definition, exports leave our cold American ports, not reach them.  Obviously these business commentators  don't know (who hired them?) that boats with exports go the other way – to foreign lands.  FYI, according to Global Analysis of National Climatic Data Center, the combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces in January was the WARMEST since 2007 and February tied with 2001 for the 21st highest record ever.  So, nothing could've blocked our export shipments from reaching their overseas destinations.           

But, of course, the thing that stupefies these people the most is the consumer spending.  Bitches cannot force themselves to believe that people have no money to buy shit.  So, they again blame the weather for the smallest gain in consumer spending on goods since 2011.  Yet, the poor frozen bastards had no choice but to spend more on services, including energy to heat homes and health care. Aha, the moment of truth:

"If not for the increased spending on health care and utilities, the economy would have contracted in the first quarter."

Dudes!  Make up your melons! Was the "frigid weather" bad or good for your numbers?  Or did it actually have very little impact on our new-world economy?    

World Wide Web is 25! Oh, Baby!


Happy_birthday_by_babsdraws-d61xnoeOh, boy, World Wide Web!  You are 25!  So young, yet so much happened to you already! You are like a fucking child rock star!

When you were born, I was still in my 20s; so were Madonna and Michael Jackson; Brad Pitt was 25 (he just turned 50 – the jury is still out on whether you are good at math or not).  Now I run to you to roll time back and see people who witnessed your birth being young and alive – you keep them all and more inside your multitude of brains.

In only a quarter of a century that flew by with incredible acceleration you have spread yourself wide and deep.  You became a source of memories, references, entertainment, political battles, nationalistic agendas, a wide range of freedom and "freedom" fights, and the supreme motherbitch of it all – communication.  Oh, the connectivity of it! 

Just like other immature tech moguls born in the eighties you strive for world domination without any care about what you have and will destroy on your way to that lofty goal.  Just like them, you carelessly offer your services to those who uphold personal liberties and those who do whatever they can to extinguish them.

Talking about mixed emotions!  On one hand, it seems that I cannot exist without you and I don't even want to remember how I managed, oh, so many things before you were born.  Hey, you gave me this very outlet of self-expression!  On the other hand, I think you are a source of some major-scale evil; you made everyone more stupid; you will accelerate further retardation of minds and  degradation of humanity – all before you exhaust your own sources of existence (aka energy and servers' capacity) and bring life functions that rely on you to a grinding halt.  So, as much as I need you, I still keep my Britannica; I still buy hardcover books, CDs, and Blurays; and I still write checks.  I use you, but I don't trust you.  If I look closely I see that you are a sneaky creep.

What can I wish you on your 25th birthday?  What can you wish anyone on their 25th birthday?  To become a mature and responsible adult.  You go and figure out what it means.  I still didn't.       

Quote of the Week: Obama’s Next Move Towards Socialism


Obama_0c245_image_1024w1-300x200From CNN's Breaking News:

"EXCLUSIVE: President Barack Obama told CNN's Jake Tapper on Thursday that some of the country's largest corporations have signed on to a White House plan to boost the hiring of the long-term unemployed.

'What we have done is to gather together 300 companies, just to start with, including some of the top 50 companies in the country, companies like Walmart, and Apple, Ford and others, to say: Let's establish best practices,' Obama said in the exclusive interview…

Obama's move is in line with his pledge to use executive action on his agenda items that he hasn't been able to get through Congress."

The Frustrated CFO Comment:

Alrighty then!  So, this is how we are going to deal with overpopulation and economic stagnation:  Instead of cutting down government spendings, ceasing the preposterous fueling of the financial sector, ending the subsidies to failing industries, letting the stock market to finally adjust to its real value, providing incentives to domestic manufacturers for repatriating their productions from overseas, and reducing business taxes in order to reignite small-business growth, the President proposes to create a new form of Welfare, i.e. to force big-time employers to absorb long-term unemployed people - in exchange for some tax credits, no doubt. 

Hmm…  Not that I'm concerned for the overgrown business superpowers with their blown out of proportion stock values and unjustifiable multi-million-dollar executive salaries, but if they don't experience a labor-force deficit, why would they accept extra employees?  That goes against every single principle of a market economy, even in its degenerative form we have right now!  And where they are going to employ them?  Walmart is planning on opening more super-stores?  They are everywhere already.  So is Apple.  And Ford?  Do you mean Ford Motor Company, the one that posts $5-$6 billion losses every year; the one in Detroit – the city declared bankrupt by US judge Stephen Rhodes two month ago?  You must be kidding!  

And how these companies are going to pay these people?  I can't imagine the execs will let their ballooned compensations to be slashed by 80%.  So, what then?  Everybody, except for a handful of the privileged, will take the same percentage cut to accommodate the unnecessary additions?  Let's make most people equally poor, so that everyone can be "employed" and  bring home something?  Wait a minute!   Didn't somebody already tried this experiment?  Oh, yes, communists in the socialist camp did!  Worked like a charm: destroyed their economies and created hordes of lazy, unmotivated, and unskilled workers!  Welcome to your future, people, courtesy of your elected leader!      

Quote of the Week: More on the Notion of Irreplaceability


"One of these types of executives is represented by people who rendered certain services in the past… These are the people who do not consider it their duty to fulfill the decisions of the Party and of the Government, and who thus destroy the foundations of Party and state discipline… They Presume that the Soviet Government will not have the courage to touch them, because of their past services. These over-conceited aristocrats think that they are irreplaceable… What is to be done with executives of this kind? They must unhesitatingly be removed from their leading posts, irrespective of past services."

                                                                                        Joseph Stalin (January 1934)

The Frustrated CFO's commentary:

Usually all my posts are accompanied by pictures, but not this one – I don't put up photos of mass murderers.  Yet, I think that this quote tragically confirms my observation that entities, organizations, and systems can survive even after the most valuable, irreplaceable individuals are removed.  In this speech, delivered during the 17th Congress of the Bolsheviks Party, Stalin has laid the grounds for the Great Purge that was about to exterminate millions of the best and the brightest Russian citizens – political, economic, scientific, military, industrial, and cultural elite.  In fact, the eliminations started with the members of the said Congress, nicknamed by historians the Congress of the Condemned because two thirds of the people present during the oration were executed within the next three years.  Without them and without the continuously murdered and imprisoned in camps workers, agrarians, engineers, doctors, scientists, poets, writers, musicians, etc. the country was getting darker, poorer, more corrupt, and less educated.  But it's still there, on the map.  Even after the break up of the Soviet Union it's still the largest damn country in the world.

Social Networking May Still Redeem Itself as an Instrument of Commercial Quality Control


 YelpToday, our minds automatically go to facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. when someone uses the words "social network." The Rudin/Sorkin/Fincher team made a movie about Mark "I-violate-your-constitutional-rights"  Zuckerberg and used those words as a title!  

And it's absolutely ridiculous, because establishing and maintaining connections with friends and "the right people" have been vital for the human species since, like, forever.  Folks have always built their settlements, villages, towns, and cities with designated places for meetings.  Back in the day (and I don't mean the 1980s), households accepted visitors on certain days of the week; and even on a random day one could come by and leave a calling card with the family's help.  And who can deny that, ever since the first Industrial Revolution, the patterns of commercial and financial developments were determined by the who-knows-who principle.  It's just that the outreach was far more limited.   

Of course, the magnitude of Internet networking is breathtaking.  In the early 1990s, when the Internet has connected all seven continents, the miracle of instant world-wide access to knowledge, culture, entertainment, or people was the most important and alluring aspect of this new technology for me.  I still experience a thrill every time I look at this blog's dashboard and see that during the last 24 hours my posts have been read not just at home, but also in Denmark, Canada, Germany, South Africa, UK, Vietnam, Australia, Portugal, Spain, India, France, and Taiwan.  I love it.

Yet, I hate facebook and Twitter.  Okay, push your eyebrows back down and let me explain. I don't hate social networking per se: It's convenient to receive updates on your favorite artists and it's important for business: I've been on LinkedIn since the times it operated exclusively on the basis of professional invitations.  But I abhor the contemporary "social network" phenomenon and what it represents: the unrestrained hunger for attention, the vile combination of pathological exhibitionism and a sickly kind of voyeurism; the violation of privacy and the desire to be violated.  I cannot stand the stalking by exes, the spying by employers, the snooping by the government agencies – all that shit.

That said, there are some companies with one or another form of social networking at their cores, which I consider not only healthy, but also greatly important due to their positive impact on the commercial environment, especially the consumer sector.  I'm not naive and I don't think that any of the entrepreneurs behind these businesses consciously elected to influence the quality of goods and services.  Most likely they simply shaped their business models utilizing the exploding patterns of collective participation in the Internet experience, but in the process they unwittingly created an influential force that has a power of strengthening and weakening businesses.       

In 1979, Tim and Nina Zagat started imploring their friends into scoring restaurants they visited, eventually turning their social pastime into a ranking business, which was bought by Google in 2011 for a reported $151 million.  Being an old-fashioned medium from the start, however, it remained the same under the new high-tech ownership: It's still unclear how the rankings are formulated.

It was Pierre Omidyar's hobby-project turned international conglomerate with an annual revenue of $14 billion, aka eBay that pioneered the concept of building market-place reputations based on the fully-disclosed opinions of the "community members," i.e. users of the eBay services.  While everyone was screaming (understandably so) that people will cheat, lie and steal, eBay founders stuck to the most fundamental of the commercial principles: in order to succeed you need to keep your ratings high, because one unresolved accusation of unsavory practices may kill your future transactions for good.  It's like what G.W. Bush said, "Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me – you can't get fooled again."

Today, thanks to rating algorithms utilized by various online businesses, we came to rely on communal ratings and individual opinions whenever we buy electronics, computers, household appliances, books, or select entertainment on Netflix, or order food delivery on Seamless, or pick a hotel on TripAdvisor, or make decisions about telecommunications providers.  Many of us not only peruse the viewpoints of others, but also actively participate in the polling process by sharing our own thoughts about this or that product, service, establishment, thus affecting a new system of commercial quality control.     

It is safe to say, in my opinion, that Yelp has become a flagship of the communal marketing model.  Again, not because the ideas of commercial quality control and merit-based rewards are so important to them, but for the sake of the advertising income ($138 million in 2012).  Nevertheless, assessing performance and assigning rewards (aka ratings) is exactly what "yelpers" (members expressing their opinions) do.  

A few unique traits place Yelp, Inc. in the avant-garde of this movement.  They encompass a wide spectrum of consumer services.  Right now you can find referrals on businesses in 20 main categories – from restaurants to religious organizations, further subdivided into specialties.  In less than 10 years they have achieved an international magnitude.  The listings are essentially combined efforts: detailed information about the business is provided by the commercial participants themselves (for a fee) and consumers supply their reviews, photos, and ratings.  The search engine is geographically oriented allowing users to find what's around them on the map. 

Also, Yelp, Inc. claims that they use an "aggressive" reviews filter, which rejects posts that are suspected to be biased or false.  As a result, according to their public releases, about 25% of entries are being dismissed.  And I can appreciate that. Like I said, rendering communal judgments on commercial establishments is a serious matter: ultimately it has a power of affecting the livelihood of individual businessmen.  So, the filtering is great as long as Yelp conducts their selections, rejections, and other manipulations fairly and without prejudice. 

Unfortunately, as with everything touched by greed, the communal quality control as executed by Yelp, Inc. may be seriously misused.  While I was writing this piece, TypePad's "related-posts" function has presented me with a few reports (including the one attached below) accusing Yelp of manipulating reviews in exchange for business clients' participation in the site's advertising programs (you can also read about it on Wikipedia).  And that's criminal.  Not only because it's nothing short of blackmail, but also because, by using individual consumers' personal and freely expressed opinions in this unsavory process, Yelp corrupts the participants' intellectual property and constitutional rights.  I sure as hell hope that these accusations are not true.  If they are, yelpers should file a class-action suit to bar Yelp, Inc. from using their reviews as the means of racketeering.    

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